The Crown Capital Management Global Journalism International Relations Blog: Errors and Emissions

Could Fighting Global Warming Be Cheap and Free?

This just in: Saving the planet would be cheap; it might even be free. But will anyone believe the good news?

I’ve just been reading two new reports on the economics of fighting climate change: a big study by a blue-ribbon international group, the New Climate Economy Project, and a working paper from the International Monetary Fund. Both claim that strong measures to limit carbon emissions would have hardly any negative effect on economic growth, and might actually lead to faster growth. This may sound too good to be true, but it isn’t. These are serious, careful analyses.

But you know that such assessments will be met with claims that it’s impossible to break the link between economic growth and ever-rising emissions of greenhouse gases, a position I think of as “climate despair.” The most dangerous proponents of climate despair are on the anti-environmentalist right. But they receive aid and comfort from other groups, including some on the left, who have their own reasons for getting it wrong.

Where is the new optimism about climate change and growth coming from? It has long been clear that a well-thought-out strategy of emissions control, in particular one that puts a price on carbon via either an emissions tax or a cap-and-trade scheme, would cost much less than the usual suspects want you to think. But the economics of climate protection look even better now than they did a few years ago.

On one side, there has been dramatic progress in renewable energy technology, with the costs of solar power, in particular, plunging, down by half just since 2010. Renewables have their limitations — basically, the sun doesn’t always shine, and the wind doesn’t always blow — but if you think that an economy getting a lot of its power from wind farms and solar panels is a hippie fantasy, you’re the one out of touch with reality.

On the other side, it turns out that putting a price on carbon would have large “co-benefits” — positive effects over and above the reduction in climate risks — and that these benefits would come fairly quickly. The most important of these co-benefits, according to the I.M.F. paper, would involve public health: burning coal causes many respiratory ailments, which drive up medical costs and reduce productivity.

And thanks to these co-benefits, the paper argues, one argument often made against carbon pricing — that it’s not worth doing unless we can get a global agreement — is wrong. Even without an international agreement, there are ample reasons to take action against the climate threat.

But back to the main point: It’s easier to slash emissions than seemed possible even a few years ago, and reduced emissions would produce large benefits in the short-to-medium run. So saving the planet would be cheap and maybe even come free.

Enter the prophets of climate despair, who wave away all this analysis and declare that the only way to limit carbon emissions is to bring an end to economic growth.

You mostly hear this from people on the right, who normally say that free-market economies are endlessly flexible and creative. But when you propose putting a price on carbon, suddenly they insist that industry will be completely incapable of adapting to changed incentives. Why, it’s almost as if they’re looking for excuses to avoid confronting climate change, and, in particular, to avoid anything that hurts fossil-fuel interests, no matter how beneficial to everyone else.

But climate despair produces some odd bedfellows: Koch-fueled insistence that emission limits would kill economic growth is echoed by some who see this as an argument not against climate action, but against growth. You can find this attitude in the mostly European “degrowth” movement, or in American groups like the Post Carbon Institute; I’ve encountered claims that saving the planet requires an end to growth at left-leaning meetings on “rethinking economics.” To be fair, anti-growth environmentalism is a marginal position even on the left, but it’s widespread enough to call out nonetheless.

And you sometimes see hard scientists making arguments along the same lines, largely (I think) because they don’t understand what economic growth means. They think of it as a crude, physical thing, a matter simply of producing more stuff, and don’t take into account the many choices — about what to consume, about which technologies to use — that go into producing a dollar’s worth of G.D.P.

So here’s what you need to know: Climate despair is all wrong. The idea that economic growth and climate action are incompatible may sound hardheaded and realistic, but it’s actually a fuzzy-minded misconception. If we ever get past the special interests and ideology that have blocked action to save the planet, we’ll find that it’s cheaper and easier than almost anyone imagines.

The CROWN where global issues are extensively discussed and fiercely debated from both sides of the argument — by one person.

The Crown Capital Management Global Journalism International Relations Blog: Is economic stagnation the new normal?

The concept of "secular stagnation" — that the economy may be facing a protracted period of low growth and high unemployment — has been seeping back into economic and policy discourse. Once relegated to the margins of heterodox economic theory, the idea of stagnation as a likely ongoing direction for the economy, in fact, is now virtually mainstream, expounded by such well-known figures as Lawrence Summers and Paul Krugman.

Stagnation, however, is not a new problem. Careful examination of the U.S. economy over the last century suggests that stagnation may not be the exception but just possibly the rule of modern economic performance — a rule that was mainly broken only by the stimulus effects of massive military expenditures at three crucial junctures.

Major economic floundering in the first quarter of the 20th century was relieved by the boost World War I gave to the economy, and the tremendous economic collapse in the second quarter was ended by World War II's huge increase in military spending. In the third quarter, the Korean War, the Cold War and the Vietnam War added major stimulus at key times.

Moreover, several of the indirect consequences of World War II — including wartime savings, the compression of wages, the strengthening of unions, the GI Bill that educated millions of veterans, and the reconstruction of Europe, together with the fact that major competitors had been temporarily destroyed by war — all contributed to the third quarter's great economic boom.

The modern trend, despite Iraq, Afghanistan and other smaller-scale wars, is also clear. Defense expenditures declined decade by decade from a Korean War high of 13.8% of the economy in 1953 to 3.7% in the 2000s, with steadily reduced economic impact. The financial bubbles in the late 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s produced only partial and highly unstable upswings that masked the underlying decline.

The notion that stagnation is far more important than is commonly understood has been bolstered by Thomas Piketty's landmark book "Capital in the Twenty-First Century," which also emphasizes just how unusual the era of the Depression and two world wars was. Piketty's analysis suggests that the high growth rates of the post-World War II period were, by and large, an aberration. "Many people think that growth ought to be at least 3 or 4 percent a year," he wrote. "Both history and logic show this to be illusory."

Viewed in this light, the latest long-range projections from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the Paris-based intergovernmental group for advanced economies, make for sobering reading. In a new report, "Policy Challenges for the Next 50 Years," the OECD warns that economic growth in the world's advanced industrial economies — including Europe, North America and Japan — will likely slow even further from historic levels over the next half-century, while inequality will rocket to new heights and climate change will take an increasingly damaging toll on world GDP.

According to the projections, the OECD member nations' annual average contribution to global GDP growth will steadily fall from 1.19% this decade to 0.54% between 2050 and 2060. Meanwhile, inequality in these countries may rise as much as 30% or more.

The OECD projections are, if anything, optimistic, since they assume that Europe and the United States each will absorb in the neighborhood of 50 million new immigrants over this period — an assumption that may run contrary to the restrictive politics of immigration playing out on both sides of the Atlantic.

The economic remedy for stagnation is relatively straightforward — in theory: Faltering demand could be offset by large-scale government spending on infrastructure, education and other much-needed investments. In practice, however, it is painfully clear that large-scale Keynesian policies of this kind are no longer politically viable.

The implications of the emerging possibility of a sustained period of stagnation are profound. Through the repeated economic downturns of recent U.S. history — 11 since 1945 alone — the expectation of eventual sustained recovery has been the critical assumption underpinning both politics and policy. An era of stagnation would undermine the economic basis of traditional political hope of both left and right. It would mean ongoing high unemployment, ongoing deficits, ongoing struggles to fund public programs and, in all probability, ongoing and intensified political deadlock and wrangling as unemployment continues, deficits increase and a profound battle over narrowing economic possibilities sets in.

If stagnation is the new normal, we will likely be forced to reassess the fundamental assumptions of politics and the economy and to ultimately get serious about restructuring our faltering economic system in more far-reaching ways than most Americans have contemplated.

The Crown Capital Management Global Journalism International Relations Blog - A Strong Economy Depends On Climate Action

Forty years ago, scientists at the University of California uncovered a global threat. From deodorants to refrigerators, chemicals in our everyday lives were destroying our ozone layer — Earth’s natural shield against the sun’s cancer-causing radiation.

Our fight to save the ozone layer became a defining moment in American leadership. It was American science that uncovered the problem and American industry that innovated the solution. And now the ozone layer is healing. Our people are safer, and our economy is stronger.

Today, we face the threat of global climate change. The pollution and the problem might be different, but the principle is the same. Once again, the world needs the United States to lead. That’s why last year, President Obama laid out a Climate Action Plan to cut the carbon pollution fueling climate change, build a more resilient nation and lead the global climate fight. And he’s at the United Nations Climate Summit in New York this week to reinforce that commitment.

I’m proud to join the president in delivering a clear message: A world-leading economy depends on a healthy environment and a safe climate. We don’t act despite the economy; we act because of it.

We’ve made tremendous progress this year — from deploying record levels of clean energy, to partnering with the private sector to advance low-carbon technologies. And this past June, the Environmental Protection Agency proposed a Clean Power Plan to cut carbon pollution from our largest source, power plants.

Climate change supercharges risks to our health and economy, and it’s taxpayers and businesses that pay the price. Fortunately, we can turn our climate challenge into an opportunity to modernize our power sector, lay the foundation for a low-carbon economy, and fuel growth for decades to come. The EPA’s historic fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks are a perfect example of what’s possible. They’re cutting carbon pollution, saving families money at the pump, and fueling a resurgent auto industry that’s added more than 250,000 jobs since 2009. The number of cars coming off American assembly lines made by American workers just reached its highest level in 12 years.

That same story of energy progress is being written across America. Since President Obama took office, the U.S. uses three times more wind power and 10 times more solar power,  which means thousands of jobs. The EPA’s Clean Power Plan follows that trend. We need thousands more American workers in construction, transmission, engineering and more to make cleaner power a reality.

Since our proposal lets states choose the low-carbon path that makes sense for them, we’re sending a powerful signal to the market that pulls investment capital off the shelf and into our clean energy economy. We’ve already received great feedback on our proposal, with more than 750,000 comments from health groups, industry groups, faith groups, parents and more. We want every good idea we can get, so we extended the public comment period through Dec. 1.

Our plan pushes progress already underway in companies, city halls and state capitals nationwide. A new report from the Carbon Disclosure Project shows that major companies like Delta, Google and Disney tack on an internal carbon price to their business decisions, because investors see the cost of carbon pollution and the value of cutting it.

It’s true that climate change needs a global solution. We can’t act for other nations, but when the United States of America leads, other nations follow. We set the pace. We invest, build and sell solutions that other nations need.

Action to reduce pollution doesn’t dull our competitive edge — it sharpens it. Years ago, American chemical companies like DuPont and Honeywell innovated safer chemicals to replace the ones destroying the ozone layer and sold those solutions to the rest of the world. Over the last four decades, the EPA has cut air pollution by 70 percent, while the U.S. economy has tripled in size.

The economy has never been a reason to fear action — it’s a reason to take it. A new study by the New Climate Economy Project finds that cutting carbon pollution could actually mean faster economic growth. Another recent study shows  even states that are still skeptical, like Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas, would actually see an annual net economic benefit of up to about $16 billion dollars.

American leadership shines brightly because we don’t sacrifice our values to move forward. We don’t bend to the false warnings of those who lack faith in American ingenuity. Today, we have more cars, more people, more jobs, more businesses and less pollution. That’s how we define progress.

When we act on climate, we seize an opportunity to retool and resurge with new technologies, new industries and new jobs. We owe it to our kids not just to act, but to lead. When we do, we’ll leave them a cleaner, safer and opportunity-rich world for generations to come.

The Crown Capital Management Global Journalism International Relations Blog: Preparing to Lead in the Digital Economy

Op-ed: The New Polytechnic: Preparing to Lead in the Digital Economy

Think about what is going on right now, all around you. There are satellites above us collecting data on air movements, sensors below us collecting data on ground movements, and cameras all around us collecting data on our movements. Medical devices are measuring heartbeats, and communication devices are receiving and sending tweets, emails, text messages, and GPS signals.

Data is being generated by each of us, about each of us, and collected all around each of us. It is the new natural resource of the 21st century. As with all valuable resources, it is important how we generate it, how we mine it, how we manage it, how we preserve it, and how we connect it.

This extraordinarily rapid expansion in the creation, availability, and interconnectivity of data from multiple sources, and the ever more powerful analytical and computational capacity that is generating new information from this deluge of data, is causing a significant transformation globally in the way we make discoveries, make decisions, make products, make connections and, ultimately, make progress. It is altering all aspects of curriculum and research at universities such as Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

The ability to aggregate, integrate, validate, structure, and fully use the burgeoning mass of information available will define success in this data-driven future – including for universities.

A new way of working and learning is required – what I have called the “New Polytechnic” – collaborating across disciplines and sectors and regions to harness the power of these tools and technologies to address the key intersecting challenges and opportunities of our time: in energy security, health, food, water, and national security, as well as the linked challenges of climate change and allocation of scarce resources so critical to our future.

In the “New Polytechnic,” universities must collaborate more effectively with businesses and governments to link the capabilities of advanced information technologies, communications, and networking – to the life sciences, and the physical, materials, environmental, social, cognitive, and computational sciences.

We also must prepare the next generation to succeed and lead in this new world. Students need to acquire new skills for this digitally interconnected environment, including the ability to “translate” between and among disciplines and sectors. They must learn to operate effectively and ethically in virtual communities, immersive environments, and in blended worlds.

At Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, we are transforming ourselves to develop and use these new tools and technologies so that our faculty and students can apply them to answer the great global challenges.

We are incorporating data literacy across the curriculum, and throughout our research. We are using digitally created immersive environments and multiplayer games, and artificially intelligent characters to teach and to learn.

We launched The Rensselaer Institute for Data Exploration and Applications – or The Rensselaer IDEA – bringing together talents and strengths in web science, high-performance computing, cognitive computing, data science and predictive analytics, and immersive technologies – and linking them to applications at the interface of engineering and the physical, life, and social sciences.

In addition, we now have the most powerful university-based supercomputer at a private American academic institution; IBM’s Watson computer has enrolled at Rensselaer to expand its cognitive computing skills; a Rensselaer professor is leading the U.S. in a global effort – the Research Data Alliance – to enable scientists to access, combine, and preserve research data; and we have partnered with Mount Sinai’s Icahn School of Medicine to push the boundaries of data-driven health research.

Interlinking all of these components and more, we are taking an interdisciplinary approach that will impact research and teaching in powerful new ways. We are educating our students – the next generation of discoverers, innovators, and entrepreneurs – to make a difference in this context. We are modeling the future.

The great universities of the 21st century will remain the physical crossroads where creative people interact across the disciplines and great ideas emerge from these connections. However, in this new digital era, the interconnections will be more global, the pace more rapid, the scale more complex, and the opportunities to change the world more immediate.

The UK is having a hard time breaking away from trade deficit

http://www.thecrownmanagement.com/the-uk-is-having-a-hard-time-breaking-away-from-trade-deficit-2/

Exports have reached new record levels as it arose, but imports have exceeded as well as its prior highs and thread of shockingly high deficits is almost unchanged. Due to this some scientists say that the recovery will only make the gap grow. The UK continues to import more than they export and are carrying a perpetual trade deficit.

The UK has balanced its trade deficit with income from abroad for a period of time. Many companies and investors who own assets in foreign lands and send back the gains to UK are still enjoying the legacy of the empire

The positive result on UK’s present account has decreased harshly since the financial crash, but, and the future looks less hopeful.

HSBC's chief economist, Stephen King, is also affected by 5% deficit. He argues that that should be down to zero or positive in the aftermath of a severe recession.

King’s concern is that deficits grow in times when many shoppers consume more imported goods than ever. Much better to start from a situation of balance or even a positive balance sooner than the situation worsens.

An appropriate recession, one in which declining wages or mass unemployment that eradicate people's incomes in total, lessen the import bill noticeably. It is a land that can be seen in Greece, Spain and Portugal, where the horrendous economic and financial conditions they find themselves in have at least improved the trade balance.

The Keynesian answer to the crisis in the UK implemented by Labour and partly sustained by the coalition supports employment and public services, however, as well has the unlucky consequence of preserving high levels of imports. That is the reason the enormous deficits run up by successive governments during and after the recession required to be offset by a major jump in exports.

Regardless of a 25% drop in the significance of sterling, the increase was just small. There are many rival explanations for the reason. The dependence on the EU, which separate from Germany has resisted development since 2008. The inclination for exporters to jack up their prices instead of the increase production as an answer to higher demand is one more long-term problem.

Both give slight motive to expect that an economy that month on month runs a historic elevated deficit previous to the upturn has achieved actual momentum, and with imports increasing further, can evade a mini sterling crisis.

Doomsayers disagree Britain has 18 months to two years to discover its export mojo ahead of it is becoming crystal clear a lower pound is needed. A minor pound would give exporters another increase and perhaps close up the deficit, however, would as well elevate import prices and inflation. Higher inflation, joined with a consumer boom that is mostly based on additional borrowing, may perhaps oblige the Bank of England to jack up interest rates. Whatever supporters of higher rate dispute, a speedy and vicious response from the central bank is unwanted and would convey the recovery to a shaky halt.

Little options of Saudis as they push tougher foreign policy

http://www.thecrownmanagement.com/little-options-of-saudis-as-they-push-tougher-foreign-policy/

Saudi Arabia, regardless of its deep discomfort about the West’s hesitant rapprochement with Iran, seems to have some viable selection for practicing a more independent and straightforward foreign policy.

Disappointed with the United States from constructing tactical relations with other world powers to thrusting a tougher line in opposition to Iranian allies in the Arab world and, in an instance that the world powers be unsuccessful to foil Tehran’s nuclear objectives, even looking for its own atomic bomb so senior Saudis have expected at a range of possibilities.

However substitute powers are tough even to think for a nation that has been holding back to U.S. ally for decades.  Russia is on the conflicting side against Riyadh concerning the Syrian war and China’s military clout is still modest as compared with the United States’.

Robert Jordan, U.S. ambassador to Riyadh from 2001-03, said there would be limits to any Saudi alliances with other powers.

Good judgment in forecasting international affairs

http://www.thecrownmanagement.com/good-judgment-in-forecasting-international-affairs/

The Economist’s The World in 2014 issue focuses international attention on the geopolitical outcomes we can expect to see over the next 12-14 months hits the newsstand.  It features an article by University of Pennsylvania psychologist Phil Tetlock and journalist Dan Gardner on the Good Judgment Project.  That said article isa research study funded by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA, the U.S. government’s analog to DARPA), as a result, makes such geopolitical predictions each day.

IARPA has posed approximately 100-150 questions every year to research teams partaking in its ACE forecasting tournament on topics like the Syrian civil war, the constancy of the Eurozone and Sino-Japanese relations since 2011.  Every research team was obliged to collect individual forecasts coming from many forecasters online and to produce daily collective forecasts that allocate sensible probabilities to potential outcomes.

The Good Judgment Project came out as the evident winner and the Good Judgment Project forecasters have established the capability to produce more right forecasts that have surpassed even a few of the most positive approximation at the start of the tournament.  The supplementary graphic shows the calculation from three GJP forecasting techniques on a up to date question about whether the first round of chemical weapons inspections in Syria would be completed before Dec. 1.

Industry, labor, foes sound off during hearing on nuclear waste

http://www.thecrownmanagement.com/industry-labor-foes-sound-off-during-hearing-on-nuclear-waste

Not often carry out nuclear industry executives and hardline activists who be against them agree on anything.

Mutually the two hates the thought of continuing to stockpile highly radioactive waste the reactor cores of nuclear power plants on the site of each power-generating station.

An hour-long hearing held December 2, 2013 drew almost 200 people from Ohio and Michigan to the Hilton Garden Inn in Perrysburg’s Levis Commons was a reminder that both sides are still far apart on what the government’s next step should be.

Although it would mean putting up with the waste decades longer than expected, industry and trade unions eventually want a single, national repository. Failure to develop a solution is reason enough to shut down the industry; this is the antinuclear activists claim to the government.

Nuclear power provides 20 percent of America’s electricity.

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the government agency that oversees the nuclear industry, learned a lot of information, the 11th stop on the agency’s 12-city tour in which it ought to do just that: Get a cross section of opinions.  As an answer to the government’s decision to unfinished plans for a national repository in Nevada’s Yucca Mountain, the NRC has been asking Americans about their thoughts regarding the agency’s proposed “waste confidence” rule and its affiliated environmental impact statement,.

As a consequence, the NRC is inquiring what the public’s thoughts concerning leaving the waste where it is, at least for the time being.

British-Muslims contribute 31 billion pounds to economy

http://www.thecrownmanagement.com/british-muslims-contribute-31-billion-pounds-to-economy/

Britain has more than 10,000 millionaires from among 2.72 million Muslims contributing 31 billion pounds or Rs 3.0 trillion to its economy, says a report.

‘The Muslim Pound - How Muslims Add Value to Britain’s Prosperity’ was released by the Muslim Council of Britain ahead of the just-concluded 9th World Islamic Economic Forum Meet 2013 in London, one report says.

Five decades on, there are more than 10,000 millionaires and thousands of others are engaged in higher managerial, administrative and professional occupations.

Nearly 2.8 million Muslims in the UK contribute over 31 billion pounds to its economy and wield a spending power of 20.5 billion pounds, a report said this November.

A paper from the Muslim Council of Britain (MCB) said from coffee houses in Elizabethan London, to curry houses in modern day Britain, thousands of Muslim-owned businesses have made a significant contribution to the UK economy and by extension, the cultural life of Britain.

The report said there are some 2.78 million Muslims in Britain, contributing over 31 billion pounds to the economy.  There is an anticipated 10,000 Muslim millionaires in the UK with liquid assets of more than 3.6 billion pounds, with more than a dozen British Muslims listed in the 2013 Sunday Times Rich List of the most affluent in the UK.

In London alone, there are over 13,400 Muslim-owned businesses in London creating more than 70,000 jobs, the paper said.

The report was published to highlight Muslims' growing contribution to the UK and to mark the 9th World Islamic Economic Forum (WIEF) went to London this month, the online portal Huffington Post UK reported.

The MCB report comes as Prime Minister David Cameron is set to unveil a new Islamic index on the London Stock Exchange.  The move, as expected to be worth 1.3 trillion pounds next year, marks the capital's significance as a global centre for Islamic finance.

The city will be the first non-Muslim city to host the World Islamic Economic Forum.

"I welcome the effort of the British Muslim community in bringing the World Islamic Economic Forum to London. My have worked with the Muslim Council of Britain to bring this Forum to London, who has been a key delegation at World Islamic Economic Forum since its inception," said London's Mayor Boris Johnson.

The MCB is a national representative Muslim umbrella body with over 300 affiliated national, regional and local organizations, mosques, charities and schools.

International relations: Russia rises as world leader

http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/03-11-2013/126056-russia_leader-0/

Many are the references in the speeches of US Presidents about the need to "lead the world", an arrogant and intrusive approach from those elected by a percentage of their own people and nobody else. Yet today, what has America's "leadership" led to, where has it led the USA and its allies, what is its standing in the hearts and minds of the international community?

The Helsinki Final Act, or Helsinki Declaration, of 1975, was perhaps the visible face of the stance of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, looking for friendly relations with the West while it brought generations and millions of oppressed persons education, healthcare and decent public services, freeing them from the yoke of imperialist tyranny.

By 1989, the USSR was spending on average 250 billion dollars - a quarter of a trillion USD - on development projects overseas, implementing policies which guaranteed the right to basic services in countries where imperialism and colonialist policies had syphoned off the resources, placing corrupt political figures in power so as to guarantee the one-way direction of resource flow - outwards.

Scroll back seventy years, when the Russian Revolution was for the first time bringing backward societies into the front line of industrial development, guaranteeing housing, for free, free public utilities, free or heavily subsidized communications, subsidized public transportation, free primary and secondary education, free higher education, free healthcare, free dental treatment, zero unemployment, safety on the streets, security of the State, social mobility, indexed pensions, guaranteed basic foodstuffs, leisure time activities, free sports facilities, free cultural facilities... and back then we could already see the true mettle of the west.

The psyche of the United States of America, its poodle-in-chief, the UK and in turn the ex-colonies of London, principally Australia and the sickening clique of sycophants which crawl around, licking Washington's legs and feet - namely France and to varying degrees the NATO pack - is in essence Anglo-Saxonic, is based upon wanderlust, imposition of cultural values in a top-down, holier-than-thou approach which saw the same nations drawing lines on maps.

The World’s Top Ten Most Dynamic Economies

http://www.thecrownmanagement.com/the-worlds-top-ten-most-dynamic-economies/

Of the top 10 world economies with the highest prospects for commerce growth in 2013, the U.S. is noticeable for its absence.

Based on Grant Thornton’s 2013 Global Dynamism Index (GDI) involving 50 countries, the U.S. slid down from No. 10 last year, to No. 11 in 2013. And to make it worse, its stats for indicators such as financing and labor markets, sank from a collective 64.1 in 2012 to 60.5 in 2013.

Yet, it is not that bad. U.S. left behind the Japanese (15) and the South Koreans (13). It also crushed the U.K., which ranked 34 overall, scoring only 51.5 out of a perfect 100. So, things in the U.S. are far from being that bad.

“I believe the U.S. is playing out almost exactly the way we expected,” said Marc Tommasi, a managing director at investment company Manning & Napier. “It is neither bright nor that terribly bad.”

Grant Thornton’s index provides insights into which of the 50 nations evaluated presents the best ecosystem for investment growth. The U.S. has dropped from the charts. But it has some company. Only a few nations have scaled the charts, and among the most stellar performers is China. It joined the top 10 this year after having placed No. 17 in 2012.

Rankings are according to performance in five main areas – business working environment, economics & growth, science & technology, labor & human capital and the lending conditions.

The obvious news from this year’s index: Asia is a powerhouse for investment growth. And even with the Nordic nations sliding, government policies there make it one of the most ideal areas in the globe to nurture a business. Even more so than the center of capitalism, Uncle Sam.

For China, the business working environment and financing were both graded badly, close to the base of the stack. However, nothing defeats the Chinese labor market. Not merely is it cheap, but on the East Coast especially, they are exceedingly skilled as well. In addition, in terms of holistic outlook there, China is No. 2 for general business growth.

This makes China the second highest jumper, right behind the upcoming tiger-economy Philippines (which climbed 25 places from No. 46 last year). The progress in China is principally powered by its science & technology ranking, where it jumped 8 places to rank 14 on the back of stable information-technology firms and spending on research and development.

“As China advances to a more sustainable economic development path, the GDI 2013 results provide a major sign that our business growth environment remains on the road to improvement,” Grant Thornton managing partner Xu Hua was cited as saying in the report published last week.

The top 10 most dynamic economies in 2012 were, namely from 1 to 10: Singapore, Finland, Sweden, Israel, Austria, Australia, Switzerland, Korea, Germany and the United States.

Here are the top 10 most dynamic economies of 2013.

No. 10: Norway

Norway got 60.9 points on the index this year, down from 62.6 last year. Multinationals have worked in Norway for so many years, most of them engaged in the oil and gas industry. The most popular Norwegian companies are Statoil and Norsk Hydro.

 

No. 9: Sweden

Sweden stands No. 9 and gained 61.6 out of a perfect 100. Last year, Sweden's business vitality scored a 69.6 on the Grant Thornton Global Dynamism Index, so this year's economic deceleration in southern Europe made a dent. Swedish technology exists in many American homes and enterprises. Ericsson is location in Stockholm. Husqvarna lawn-mowers mow many American lawns. 

 

No. 8: Israel

Israel scores lower this year with 61.8 on the index compared with 69.3 last year, losing its former No. 4 spot. Israel's growth economy is founded on biotechnology and software. Teva Pharmaceuticals is Israeli-owned and is the largest manufacturer of generic medicines in the world.

No. 7: Singapore

Singapore slid down this year but remains up there. On the index in 2013, it scored 61.9 out of a perfect 100, down from the No. 1 spot last year at 72.1. The country is generally noted as the biggest trade center in the world.

Tied with Canada: Finland

Finland ties with Canada with 62.3 this year, dropping from the No. 2 spot last year with a score of 70.5. Naturally, everyone remembers Finland as the people who gave us Angry Birds. Rovio Mobile is housed in Espoo. Microsoft adores Finnish tech so much it acquired Nokia this year.

 

No. 5: Canada

Canada and Finland both scored 62.3 out of a perfect 100 and is improving. Last year on the index, it gained 61.7. Canada is popular as the country that gave us the smartphone. BlackBerry is located in Waterloo. And while BlackBerry has seen brighter days, Canada likewise hosts TD Bank and airplane manufacturer Bombardier. 

 

No. 4: New Zealand

That Fly Emirates symbol printed on the jib sail of an America's Cup catamaran belongs to Team New Zealand. The country ranked No. 4 with an index score of 62.6, sliding from 63.9 last year on the Grant Thornton Global Dynamism Index. In spite of this lower index number, New Zealand climbed from No. 13 in 2012. 

 

No. 3: China

China is doing something right, climbing from Rank 20 last year to No. 3. It scored a 62.7 out of 100, up from last year's score of 61.4. China is the world's No. 2 economy, and here in the U.S., it is referred to as the economy every politician “loves to hate”. Accused of causing massive losses of manufacturing jobs in America and a crushing trade deficit, China is no longer merely a Happy Meal toy-manufacturing economy. It is now noted for being a melting-pot for luxury retailers. However, it is also popular for Internet pet-companies such as Tencent, Baidu and Sina. 

No. 2: Chile

Chile has always been favoured by the global executive. The only thing that has changed is that it continues to get better. Last year, it garnered No. 11 with an index score of 63.8. This year, it is No. 2 with an index score of 64.5. Noted for its copper mining, red wine and salmon, it is also home to LAN Airlines, the biggest airline owned by Latin Americans. Chile is good; but not as good as these guys...

 

The Most Dynamic Business Climate On Earth...

...is Downunder. Australia climbed from No. 7 last year with an index score of 65.6 to No.1 with an index score of 66.5. Australia has so much to offer prospective investors: twenty two years of continuous economic growth; stable institutions; a trained, industrious labor force and a vigorous culture of investment in research and development. The country’s most noted firms include mining giant BHP Billiton, surf apparel and culture brand Billabong and Rip Curl, and brewery Fosters Group. Addicted to playing fruit ninja on X Box Kinect? It is a product of Halfbrick Studios of Australia.

GCHQ: inside the top secret world of Britain's biggest spy agency

http://www.thecrownmanagement.com/gchq-inside-the-top-secret-world-of-britains-biggest-spy-agency/

A couple years back, GCHQ held its yearly sports fest on Wednesday, 15 June at London’s Civil Service Sports Club. A gender-friendly, six-a-side football match was the main event of the activity, with games kicking off at exactly 11 A.M..

The day was a cheerful experience for those normally ensconced in the agency's unique doughnut-shaped command centre in Cheltenham. Participants were given a six-page list of rules and regulations to ascertain that people played fair.
"Each team MUST field at least ONE lady player at all times," the note said. "Proper footwear shall be worn. Crocs, sandals or flip-flops are not allowed. The wearing of shin-pads is REQUIRED."
Among all the extremely confidential papers about GCHQ exposed by the whistleblower, Edward Snowden, this has to be one of the least delicate. But it provides a peek into the world of the 6,100 people packed into the open-plan and underground GCHQ offices; that there is a sports activity at all shows something about the agency which many people outside their world could not appreciate.

Last year, GCHQ also made trips to the Paris Disneyland, and its sailing club participated in an offshore regatta at Cowes. The agency also has a chess club, regular pub quiz nights, cake bazaars and an in-house puzzle newsletter named Kryptos. A member of Stonewall beginning last year, GCHQ has its own Pride group for employees who are gay, lesbian, bisexual or transgender.

There is also a paranormal group that describes itself as "GCHQ's ghost-hunting group". It is open to staff and their partners either "sceptics or believers" who want to explore "supposedly haunted properties".

Employees reckon their age on the internal directory, "GCWiki", by their "internet age", a gage of how long they have been experts on the web.

They meet friends during yearly family open-days, or through messages on the agency's own version of MySpace, aptly titles SpySpace.
Colleagues are bound to meet others cut from the same fabric. The agency's 2010/11 recruitment guide states that GCHQ hires top-calibre technologists and mathematicians familiar with the intricate algorithms that fuel the Internet. But it has space for a few accountants and librarians. No vacancies available for classicists, however.

26 Million People Struggling Financially

http://www.thecrownmanagement.com/26-million-people-struggling-financially/

Approximately 26 million Britons are presently having money problems because the economic

slump has induced a “live for the moment” mentality, based on a major report on the wellbeing of the country’s finances.

Over fifty percent of UK adults stated that they were struggling with their finances, the

government-sponsored body, Money Advice Service (MAS), bared. This is a sudden increase

from 35 percent of people who were undergoing a hard time paying their bills compared to the

previous time a similar study was conducted in 2006.

Hourly salary has plummeted by 6 percent in real value since the previous research was carried

out, making it more difficult for people to eke out a living.

A “live for the moment” culture and lack of financial smarts were also discovered to be possible

reasons.

Twenty percent of those polled stated that they would prefer to have £200 at present than

£400 after four months, with twenty-five percent of people replying they choose to live for the

present rather than plan for the future.

The report also showed that a disturbing number of Britons are deficient in financial awareness.

About 12 percent of those asked believed the Bank of England’s base rate, which has been at a

remarkable 0.5 percent low for over four years, was over 10 percent.

Over one third of the people asked did not comprehend the great effect that inflation has on

their savings and 16 percent could not tell the right balance on a bank statement.

Nevertheless, more encouraging result from the survey revealed that the number of people

checking their bank account statements had grown since 2006 and almost 84 percent of people

said they constantly monitored their finances.

40 percent of those questioned said they stay clear of doubtful dealings and 85 percent said

they were laying aside some money in savings.

Caroline Rookes, chief executive of the MAS, said: “In principle, financial management is easy –

spend less than you make and think about your future – but the challenge comes from how we

apply it in actual life.”

The MAS, an autonomous body established by the Government, has a legal duty of enhancing

public awareness and knowledge about financial issues. It plans to publish a method to assist

citizens improve their financial condition next year.

Over 5,000 people participated in the survey, with more than 70 families monitored over the

period of one year for the Financial Capability of The UK Report, which uncovered “a common

sentiment that people worry about their capability to endure until the next payday”.

Constitutionality of Renewable Energy Mandates in Question

http://www.thecrownmanagement.com/constitutionality-of-renewable-energy-mandates-in-question-2/

In a potentially crushing strike against advocates for renewable energy mandates, a federal court ruling recently raised the issue of constitutionality of major provisions of many states’ renewable energy mandates.



On June 7, 2013, U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) position against the state of Michigan (and other petitioners) in a disagreement over FERC’s proposal to distribute costs for new power lines to supply millions of megawatts of wind power in the Great Lakes area.  Michigan believes that this plan would, in essence, require them to pay for expensive new power lines intended for transmitting renewable energy out of the state. Based on the law establishing Michigan’s 2008 Renewable Energy Standard, only renewable energy generated inside its state borders is qualified to fulfill Michigan’s obligation to utilize 10% of eligible renewable energy sources by 2015.



Speaking for the Court, Judge Richard Posner ruled:



“Michigan’s first argument—that its law prohibits it from crediting wind power from out of state in favor of the state’s obligated use of renewable energy by its utilities—trips over an unbreakable constitutional precedence. Michigan cannot, without violating Article I of the commerce clause of the Constitution, discriminate against out-of-state renewable energy (emphasis added).”



Thirty states, including the District of Columbia, have mandates on renewable energy that require electric companies to purchase a certain quota or percentage of renewable energy by a projected year. Just like Michigan which has a clear ban on wind produced in other states from being allowed into their mandate, other states also “discriminate” against out-of-state renewable power. When counting mandate compliance, several states count in-state power at a higher rate than out-of-state power, a practice popularly labelled as “multipliers”:

Delaware has a 300% credit multiplier for customer-sited, in-state photovoltaic (PV), a 350% multiplier for a specific offshore wind project, and a 150% multiplier for all other in-state wind projects;
Colorado applies a 1.25 multiplier for its in-state generation;
Michigan provides an extra 0.1 credit for projects that use state-available components and its local workforce;
Missouri grants a 1.25 multiplier for all in-state generation.
Kansas uses a 1.1 multiplier for all in-state resources;
Moreover, some state renewable policies have a list of renewable energy grades, where certain power sources can only be utilized to fulfill a part of the mandate.  Others have grade levels dedicated particularly to in-state power generation that may now be doubtful in view of the recent decision by the federal court:

New Mexico’s Tier V applies to customer-sited resources;
Massachusetts’ Tier IV exclusively applies to in-state PV projects;
New York’s Tier II covers customer-sited resources.
The new ruling is significant since one of the main points raised by mandate proponents is the creation of jobs in the concerned state.  Certainly, these claims merely consider the overall “green” jobs provided, while totally neglecting the loss of net jobs resulting from increased electricity rates arising from these mandates. The federal court ruling might just end up nullifying the argument for in-state green-job employment since renewable power can be imported out-of-state to comply with the mandate.

Lawmakers in these states with power mandates may now question the value of raising electricity rates on their state power consumers for the purpose of subsidizing “green” job creation in another state nearby. In the end, what this ruling has done is to unravel the problems and complexities with a market for renewables that has been created through government policies.

The State of the Nation’s Air, and Your Lungs

http://www.thecrownmanagement.com/the-state-of-the-nations-air-and-your-lungs/

In most places, the quality of air in America is better than ever.

As China remains blanketed by an ever-thickening haze, we in the United States can be grateful of one thing: The air is getting cleaner in most parts. The American Lung Association reported in its State of the Air 2013 that 18 cities have lower dust pollution compared to previous years, while 16 had their lowest figures ever.


Nevertheless, the improvement is not that widespread. About 25 million Americans live in conditions of harmful levels of ozone and particle pollution. Around 131 million people (42%) live with either type of unhealthful environment. California’s busy and highly-populated metros rank badly in the rankings, consistently topping the five most-polluted metros by ozone, year-round and short-term particulate pollution. Bakersfield, the highest for particulates among 277 metros, fares worst of all although it has already improved.


In general, 119 counties have levels of ozone that affect the health of citizens with "aggravated asthma, difficulty breathing, cardiovascular harm and lower birth weight". Particulate levels in 58 counties are such that they "increase risks of heart attacks, strokes and emergency room visits for asthma and cardiovascular disease".


Cities, such as Salt Lake City and Fairbanks, Alaska, experience more frequent short-term spikes in pollution. Out of 25 cities that had the worst short-term problems, 14 recorded more poor days than in previous reports of the "State of the Air". According to the report, some cities experienced higher pollution arising from increased burning of wood and other fuels for heating during winter, especially with the use of highly-polluting indoor wood-stoves or outdoor wood-boilers.


Of the cleanest cities, New Mexico proudly ranks third and fifth for least particulates (Santa Fe and Farmington), Wyoming has another (Cheyenne), then Prescott, Arizona, and St. George, Utah. To help you determine your city’s ranking, the Lung Association website provides a friendly search function using the zip code.


"State of the Air" utilizes data gathered by the E.P.A. from 2009 to 2011. Its main objective is to promote continued enforcement of the Clean Air Act. Since 1970 when the Act was first amended, population and energy consumption has increased by about 50% while gross domestic product rose 212%, the report shows. Since then, emissions of the six most common pollutants have decreased by 68%. China, on the other hand, can only dream of achieving such a growth-to-pollution ratio.

Sea disputes, N. Korea in spotlight at ASEAN summit

http://www.thecrownmanagement.com/sea-disputes-n-korea-in-spotlight-at-asean-summit/


Concerned about possible escalation of long-seething tensions over certain isles in South China Sea, Southeast Asian officials meeting in Brunei this week are planning to press China to agree to begin talks to draft a new pact aimed at preventing a major military confrontation in one of the busiest waterways in the globe.

Apprehension over North Korea’s recent saber-rattling is also expected to compete for attention over vital economic issues in the annual ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Summit being held Wednesday and Thursday in Bandar Seri Begawan, capital of Brunei.

The 10-nation ASEAN bloc is under time-pressure to try to develop the significantly culture-differentiated region of 600 million people after the European Union model-community before 2016.

First conceptualized in a 2007 master plan, the work to transform the dynamic region into a singular market-and-production hub has reached about 77 percent completion, according to a draft declaration to be released after the summit. No details as to what remains undone have been given.

A copy of the joint statement obtained by The Associated Press on Monday states the ASEAN leaders’ continuing commitment to ensure the peaceful resolution of South China Sea conflicts within the bounds of international law  and “without resorting to the threat or use of force.”

ASEAN stands to call for “the early adoption of a code of conduct in the South China Sea,” referring to a legally-binding agreement it would like to forge with China to replace a 2002 nonaggression accord that has failed to stop territorial conflicts.

China, Taiwan and ASEAN members Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam and the Philippines have overlapping territorial claims across the South China Sea, which Beijing claims in its entirety. Vietnam and the Philippines, for instance, have been constantly playing cat-and-mouse with China over the region in recent years, with diplomatic squabbles exploding over gas and oil exploration and fishing rights.

A tense standoff last year between Chinese and Filipino naval ships over the resource-rich Scarborough Shoal has remained unsettled.

The Philippine vessels withdrew; but China has adamantly declined from pulling out its three surveillance ships and removing a rope stopping Filipino fishermen from venturing into a Scarborough lagoon.

The Philippines, early this year, protested against China’s extensive territorial claims before an arbitration tribunal of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in a bold legal action that China has all but ignored. The tribunal is still hoping to appoint three more of five arbiters by Thursday, then begin investigating the complaint whether it has jurisdiction.

A pre-summit conference of ASEAN foreign ministers in Brunei two weeks ago generally revolved around concerns over the territorial disputes and concluded with a demand for an early completion of a nonaggression pact with China, Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario stated.

Chinese officials, however, have not specifically signified when they would decide to meet for discussions on the proposed accord.

ASEAN unity has been endangered by the territorial issue. Cambodia, an all of China, rejected moves to have the issue inserted in a post-ministerial statement during last year’s summit. Vietnam and the Philippines protested the snub and the ASEAN summit concluded without issuing an after-conference communique, a first in the bloc’s 45-year existence.

China has vigorously refused to bring the issues to the international forum, opting to deal with each of its rivals on a one-on-one basis. It has also warned U.S. not to intervene in the regional disputes.

Founded in 1967 as a front against communism in the Cold War era, ASEAN has often been caught in the crossfire of major conflicts. As it is, the bloc walks an unsteady tightrope between a growing China and a powerful America that is reasserting its status in Asia-Pacific.

The two giants wield tremendous influence over the developing, small ASEAN nations, whose region has become a battleground for political and security control and export markets as it contains one of the world’s busiest sea lanes.

National Defense Forces from all of members of ASEAN, together with eight other countries that include the United States and China, will conduct, for the first time, three-day disaster preparedness drills in Brunei come June to promote confidence among the multinational troops, the draft summit statement also mentioned.

Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, Brunei’s media-shy leader, has initiated the tedious ground-work to prevent any major fisaco in the ASEAN summits his tiny but oil-rich kingdom is hosting this year.

Bolkiah has separately met with US President Barack Obama and Chinese leader Xi Jinping prior to this week’s summit. Last week, he flew to Manila, to discuss part of the summit agenda with Philippine President Benigno Aquino III.

When his gleaming Royal Brunei Air plane taxied to a red-carpet welcome in Manila, Philippine officials were surprised to see Bolkiah, who also commands Brunei’s defense forces, at the pilot’s seat.

Jakarta Can Be a ‘New Manhattan’: Tomy Winata

http://www.thecrownmanagement.com/jakarta-can-be-a-new-manhattan-tomy-winata/


Jakarta is poised to become a “new Manhattan” according to an ambitious city plan described by Tomy Winata, founder of Artha Graha Group founder, during to an interview with cable TV broadcaster CNBC aired last weekend.

Danayasa Arthatama, a subsidiary of Winata’s company, closed a deal with US firm MGM Hospitality to construct a $2 billion, 638-meter tower — Indonesia’s tallest building in the future — within Sudirman Central Business District, South Jakarta.

Dubbed Signature Tower, the building will claim the world’s fifth-tallest building tag with its 111 stories, dwarfing Kuala Lumpur’s Petronas Towers as the tallest building in Southeast Asia. Based on the ompanies’ program, it will house 70 floors of office space, a six-star luxury hotel and will include conference facilities.

Tomy, 54, told CNBC that the project will anounce to the world that “Jakarta … is not a big village. Jakarta is becoming a new Manhattan.”

Meantime, on his proposed $15 billion Sunda Strait bridge project, the native of West Kalimantan declared, “I haven’t got the rights to do the project.”

Former Finance Minister Agus Martowardojo hesitated to grant the central government support to Artha Graha’s plan as well as the Banten Lampung provincial governments to build a 29-kilometer bridege connecting Sumatra and Java.

Nevertheless, Tomy Winata feels confident the project will push through in the end. “If one day the government gives the opportunity to us, the project financing will come from the private sector, without any guarantee from the government,” he told CNBC.

The government’s public-private partnership program requires state guarantees, considering the major investment risks involved. Agus, who will soon assume as Bank of Indonesia governor next month, has declared that he wanted to avoid a recurrence of the fiasco over the Jakarta monorail project.

Here’s The Argument That The Entire World Economy Is Starting To Go Bad

http://www.thecrownmanagement.com/heres-the-argument-that-the-entire-world-economy-is-starting-to-go-bad/

Lately, the stock market has weakened with commodities been getting crushed.

Is the global economy slowing down hard? Maybe.

Recent U.S. economic data especially in housing has been disappointing.

And growth in China, a global growth engine, has slowed as it continues to crack down on corruption, property prices, and shadow banking. Its plan to shift its economy from exports to domestic-demand-powered growth has also added to the lower growth rate.

In Germany, Europe’s so-called strong-arm, economic hopes fall.

Let us briefly consider some salient data arising around the globe:



The U.S.

Housing, considered a huge source part of the economic recovery, is also showing signs of faltering. Building permits are decreasing and so is homebuilder confidence while foreclosure procedures are up and capacity limitations among mortgage lenders are also affecting the initial rebound.

America’s manufacturing rebirth also seems off-target. The Empire Fed manufacturing survey went down to 3.05 in April, below expectations. Today, we saw the April Philly Fed fall to 1.3, with the unemployment sub-index going down to -6.8.

In March, retail sales suddenly fell 0.4%. Nomura explained that the decreasing trends in sales in the last two months meant that “consumer adjustment to lower disposable income at the start of the year has begun.” Consumer confidence also missed the mark, falling to 72.3 in April, from 78.6 in March.

Reports regarding employment showed that only 88,000 new jobs were created in March, way below the expected 190,000 goal. The unemployment rate fell to 7.6% only because of a slow down in the rate of labor-force participation.

Topping this somber picture is the sequester, which has just started to move.



China

Chinese GDP fell down to 7.7% in Q1, missing the 8% growth target. Industrial production, manufacturing (as represented through PMI) and exports, likewise, did not make the grade.

The government’s campaign against corruption through ‘gift giving’ has affected retail sales, especially in the catering industry.

Latest surveys also indicated that home prices in China went up in 68 of 70 cities. Top-ranking cities posted a huge rise in home prices. Policymakers will most likely maintain the stringent measures to control the rise in property prices and shadow-banking.

Final assessment: The three major economic regions show clear signs of instability.



Europe

Germany showed some positive signs; but economic sentiment fell down to 42.

In the United Kingdom, joblessness increased by 70,000 to 2.56 million from December through February. Unemployment rate increased to 7.9%. Moreover, retail sales, including fuels, fell 0.7% within March, and 0.5% within the year. And next week’s GDP data will show if the U.K. has entered a triple-dip recession.

Can the New Argentine Pope Save the Catholic Crisis in Latin America

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Can the New Argentine Pope Save the Catholic Crisis in Latin America

There had never been a Latin American pope despite that it is home to nearly half of the world’s 1.2 billion Catholics but between 2000 and 2010, the percentage of Mexicans that identify as Catholic dropped from 88 to less than 83 — the largest fall recorded to date.  Now that the new Pope is the place, can he save his church?  Furthermore, the Vatican had been concerned about the remarkable decline of Catholicism throughout the region in the preceding decade. Vatican had once seen the area as a “continent of hope,” it now thought of it as a “continent of concern.”

Politicians have defied the church in ways, such as in Mexico City, officials legalized euthanasia, and same-sex marriage and adoption, in 2009.  The peril of excommunication did nothing to alter their minds.  Argentinian President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner legalized same-sex marriage in 2010.  She countered to the resistance accumulated by Bergoglio by accusing him a relic from the past “reminiscent of the Middle Ages and the Inquisition.”  Chilean President Sebastián Piñera, of the historically Catholic Christian Democratic Party, enacted an anti-discrimination law that included sexual orientation as a category for protection against the strenuous opposition from Catholic officials in 2012.  And up to this day, Piñera is pushing legislation to legalize same-sex civil unions.

10 Years After: Britain Today

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Prime Minister Tony Blair, addressed the nation: Britons woke to the footage of fireballs over Baghdad on March 20, 2003.  The first cruise missiles were launched from American ships in the Persian Gulf.
“The threat to Britain today is not that of my father’s generation.  War between the big powers is unlikely.  Europe is at peace.  The Cold War already a memory.  But this new world faces a new threat: of disorder and chaos born either of brutal states like Iraq, armed with weapons of mass destruction, or of extreme terrorist groups. Both hate our way of life, our freedom, our democracy.”
The comments wittingly said by Mr. Blair in his speech in Chicago in 1999 in which the prime minister, flush with success in Kosovo, had outlined his doctrine:
“We are all internationalists now, whether we like it or not. We cannot refuse to participate in global markets if we want to prosper. We cannot ignore new political ideas in other counties if we want to innovate. We cannot turn our backs on conflicts and the violation of human rights within other countries if we want still to be secure.”